CEO Watchlist: Week In Review

April 13, 2025

TOP NEWS AFFECTING THE STOCK MARKET THIS WEEK:

Did Trump Just Spark A Massive Tech Rally? (Source)

Stocks mentioned: $AAPL, $QQQ, $NVDA, $TSM, $DELL

President Trump has exempted smartphones, computers, chips, and other tech components from his new 145% China tariffs, easing pressure on companies like Apple (AAPL) that heavily rely on Chinese manufacturing. The move comes after intense market volatility and outcry from tech CEOs, as the initial tariff threat wiped out ~$640 billion from Apple’s market value and sent bond yields surging. The White House says the exemptions are "temporary" to give companies time to shift production to the U.S., but a baseline 20% tariff on Chinese goods will remain in effect. Trump took to Truth Social Sunday night and seemingly backtracked some of these so called "tariff exemptions" on China stating, "NOBODY is getting "off the hook" for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers, that other Countries have used against us, especially not China which, by far, treats us the worst! There was no Tariff "exception" announced on Friday." So although we had some good news surrounding the easing of tariffs on Saturday, it seems as if Trump wants to make it clear we're not out of the woods yet. This will cause a bit of confusion for tech stocks on Monday but we do expect to see a net positive for the Nasdaq (QQQ) on the open tomorrow, Monday, morning. Although Apple, which assembles the majority of its products in China, seems to be a clear winner with the removal of tariffs, we personally like a few other names better in the tech sector. These stocks include the chip makers like Nvidia (NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). Both stocks highly benefit from the exclusion of semiconductors on Trump's tariffs as it ensures the flow of critical chips remains uninterrupted. Also TSM reports earnings this week on Thursday so we will be keeping our eyes on that report and giving a detailed summary to the Investment Club Members. Dell (DELL) also sidesteps major supply chain disruptions, preserving its hardware profitability. In short, a relaxation in tariff policies not only protects margins for these companies, but also restores confidence to tech investors after weeks of tariff-driven market volatility to the downside...that is as long as the White House continues to pull back on tariffs and can make trade deals with our allies and so called enemies.

Instagram In Danger Of A Potential Breakup?! (Source)

Stocks mentioned: $META, $GOOG, $AMZN

Billionare and CEO Mark Zuckerberg is racing against time to persuade Trump to call off a major antitrust trial that could force the breakup of the company’s most valuable assets, Instagram and WhatsApp. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC), led by Trump’s appointed chairman Andrew Ferguson, is pushing to prove Meta (META) violated antitrust laws by buying-out rivals rather than competing against them. With the trial set to begin April 14 and no clear indication that Trump will intervene, legal experts say a settlement is unlikely, and Meta could face a long, high-stakes courtroom battle.

We are closely monitoring Meta (META), which faces immense downside risk if forced to spin off its core apps. On the other hand, we could see a relief rally in the name if it avoids the anti-trust breakup of the company. However, Meta isn't the only company being targeted by the FTC. For example, Alphabet (GOOG) has been relentlessly pursued by the government to break off one of its core businesses in search as they claim Google has a monopoly on the market. Even before the recent stock market crash that started in February, Google has been on a downtrend since January because of these fears. One stock that currently isn't in the crosshairs of the FTC is Amazon (AMZN). We believe it is positioned better than Meta and Alphabet moving forward, specifically when it comes to ad spend. Amazon is a company most people don't think about when it comes to competition against Meta and Google. Meta and Google have held a duopoly for many years on the ad spend industry, but within the past 5 years Amazon has slowly been taking market share to turn this once duopoly into a triopoly. As projections indicate, Amazon is close to surpassing both Google and Meta in the next 5 years. This is one of many reasons we consider Amazon one of our top stocks for this year and beyond.

Recession Incoming? Jamie Dimon Thinks So! (Source)

Stocks mentioned: $JPM, $BLK, $AMZN, $GOOG, $MSFT, $META, $NVDA, $TSLA, $SPY

The CEO of JP Morgan (JPM), Jamie Dimon, is warning that ongoing bond market chaos could trigger a liquidity crisis similar to 2008. He warned that a recession is likely and corporate defaults could rise as Trump’s escalating tariffs trigger turmoil in global markets and a historic bond selloff. Dimon’s comments reflect growing fears across Wall Street, aligning with BlackRock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink, who said most CEOs already feel the U.S. is in a recession. While financial leaders signal alarm, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent maintains the economy is still in "pretty good shape," creating a sharp divide in outlook.

With CEOs, government officials, and every Wall Street analyst having extremely different opinions on where the stock market heads from here, we have a very simple belief at CEO Watchlist. We believe if tariff news gets better, stocks will do better. If tariff news gets worse, stocks will do worse. It's that simple! It seems to us a lot of analysts have overcomplicated the issue, and that our viewers deserve a more direct and simple answer to what is going on in these markets. Recently the Trump administration has pulled back on some tariffs, which we believe is bullish for the stock market. We believe the stock market has hit a potential short-term technical bottom, which formed on April 7, 2025. This doesn't mean the market can't retest the lows from April 7th, but we do believe, going into the end of this year, markets have a high likelihood of rallying, led by tech stocks. Our favorites are some of the "Magnificent 7" names that we believe have pulled back in valuation such as Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA). As you'll see in the data below from Carson Research, after the S&P500 (SPY) has a 10% drop over the course of 2 days, we tend to see stocks up 7.9% on average 1 month later, up 15.8% on average 6 months later, and up 32.6% on average 1 year later. Positive data, such as this, tied in with positive tariff news allows us at CEO Watchlist to remain bullish going into the end of 2025. Our only concern would be reimplementing tariffs or increasing current tariffs to even higher levels. This is why we say everyone needs to keep an eye on tariffs because us being bullish or bearish all depends on tariff news. The other issue is a potential black swan event, such as China invading Taiwan or something just as extreme, which could cause another stock market crash.

INSIDER TRADES FROM THE WEEK:

1. Visa (V) - Josh Gottheimer, a House Rep. In New Jersey, bought between ~$3,003-$45,000 worth of Visa stock between Mar. 3 - Mar. 24, 2025, but it was reported to the public on April 11, 2025. (Source)

2. Nike (NKE) - Robert Swan, a director, bought ~$500,000 of Nike stock on April 4 2025, but it was reported to the public on April 7, 2025. (Source)

3. Applied Materials (AMAT) - Gary Dickerson, President and CEO, bought ~$6.8 million worth of Applied Materials stock on April 3, 2025, but it was reported to the public on April 7, 2025. (Source)