CEO Watchlist: Week In Review (6/29/25)

TOP NEWS AFFECTING THE STOCK MARKET THIS WEEK:

Trump Vs. Canada! The Gloves Are Back On: Here's 5 Stocks That Could Benefit From This Chaos... (Source)

Stocks mentioned: $TSLA, $BABA, $INFY, $CAT, $V

For years, North American trade has been viewed as a stabilizing backbone of U.S. economic resilience. But that assumption is now under direct threat. In a move that surprised both allies and adversaries, Donald Trump announced on Friday that his administration would halt all trade talks with Canada and instead double down on tariffs. The immediate narrative, framed as another protectionist impulse, misses the bigger picture: this is not about punishing Canada. It's about reorienting America’s supply chains towards more politically advantageous ones. The implications are massive, and certain stocks are poised to benefit enormously.

This abrupt shift didn't come out of nowhere. After months of escalating tariff threats over Canadian dairy and lumber, Trump finally pulled the plug, accusing Canada of taking advantage of U.S. trade loopholes. Meanwhile, he just announced this past week his freshly signed deal with China and teasing one with India. These are not coincidences, they represent a strategic pivot. The bottleneck in global trade is no longer logistics or demand, it’s political alignment and fiscal advantages. The U.S. is reshuffling its trade deck based on perceived loyalty and strategic leverage, not just on the merit that you are an ally of the United States, which goes against what we've done traditionally, causing volatility.

This kind of volatility creates obvious losers (Canadian exporters and U.S. automakers with supply chain ties across the northern border), but more importantly, it creates new winners in industries aligned with U.S.-favored partners and those tied to localized production. Investors should be tracking companies that are either 1. insulated from North American trade fallout, or 2. directly benefiting from new China/India deals. A few high-conviction plays include:
- Tesla (TSLA): Despite domestic roots, Tesla has aggressively expanded production and sales in China and is already laying groundwork in India. If tariffs lock out Canadian EVs or parts, Tesla becomes even more of a default U.S. option.
- Alibaba (BABA): Often overlooked in U.S. portfolios, Alibaba is now a sanctioned partner in the new China trade deal, giving it a geopolitical moat that could lead to privileged market access.
- Infosys (INFY): Infosys sits at the intersection of enterprise software, AI services, and IT consulting, all sectors Trump has declared “critical infrastructure.”
- Caterpillar (CAT): If Canadian infrastructure projects stall from trade fallout, domestic reindustrialization will serve as demand replacements.
- Visa (V): As India integrates deeper into the U.S. financial rails and bypasses legacy partnerships, Visa’s network effects and digital payment infrastructure stand to scale alongside this new consumer base.
To be clear, this strategy isn’t without risks. Critics argue that abandoning trade talks with a stable neighbor like Canada weakens regional cohesion and could backfire on American exporters. That’s a valid concern. However, the counterargument, and the one the market isn’t pricing in yet, is that the U.S. is trading short-term stability for long-term leverage. If Trump’s recalibrated alliances lead to faster trade execution with emerging economies, the near-term noise may be worth the strategic payoff.

The world is moving from blind alliances to selective partnerships. That transition, while chaotic, creates moments of asymmetric opportunity in the stock market. Investors who understand that this is not just another tariff headline, but a signal of a deeper trade realignment, will find themselves ahead of the curve. Ignore the surface-level politics. The deeper signal is that America is choosing new economic dance partners, and savvy investors should follow the music.

Palantir Buys A $3 Stock! Is This The Next Big A.I. Winner? Or Is It The Next A.I. Dud? (Source)

Stocks mentioned: $PLTR, $SRFM, $NVDA, $ARM, $RXRX, $CRWV

For years, investors have assumed that only hedge funds and billionaires swing the market by accumulating stakes in tiny, overlooked stocks. But what if the next big power player in small-cap investing isn’t a Wall Street hedge fund, but rather a publicly traded company? Most people don't realize that publicly traded companies can actually buy stock and that’s exactly what’s unfolding with Palantir ($PLTR). This week, the AI and data analytics giant bought $2,000,000 of Surf Air Mobility ($SRFM), a $3 stock with under $100 million in market cap, proving that even public companies, not just their executives, can act like venture capitalists when the opportunity is right.

This isn’t new, but it’s rarely talked about. Even a company like Nvidia ($NVDA) has quietly built positions in Arm ($ARM), Recursion Pharmaceuticals ($RXRX), and Coreweave ($CRWV), leveraging strategic equity investments to create a moat around its ecosystem. The public simply misses this because the average person doesn't know where to look to find this information. What Palantir is doing, buying stock in a company they believe aligns with their long-term vision, reflects a broader macro shift. We at CEO Watchlist agree with Palantir and think there is a lot of opportunity in some of these smaller A.I. companies. As for Surf Air Mobility, the company aims to disrupt regional air travel with commuter flights and private charters, powered by AI software and eco-friendly electric propulsion. Bullish investors highlight its high revenue growth, attractive valuation, notable insider buying, and strong positioning in a multi-billion-dollar emerging market. One thing we really like is that Palantir owns 20% of the company. So if Palantir has enough conviction to buy out 20% of this company, we believe there may be a lot of potential behind this small-cap stock.

Skeptics might argue that corporate equity stakes in tiny stocks are more about optics than fundamentals, and that’s not entirely wrong. There is risk here, especially if these investments don’t materially impact revenue. But the counterpoint is compelling: these bets are small in dollar terms but massive in optionality. In many ways, they resemble venture capital (VC) portfolios within public companies, a structure that lets giants incubate future partners or acquisitions at pennies on the dollar.

The market has not priced in this new form of corporate alpha. Most investors still assume innovation must come from research & development (R&D) or mergers & acquisitions (M&A). But in the next wave, expect strategic equity purchases to play a bigger role. Palantir just showed us what that looks like, and it’s not priced in. "Big Tech" can’t build everything in-house anymore. Companies like Palantir and Nvidia are now solving this by taking equity stakes in firms that fill gaps in their roadmaps and sometimes those firms trade publicly. That opens up an entirely new dimension for retail and institutional investors who want to co-invest alongside these titans.

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Nike’s Comeback: After Years of Stumbles, the Swoosh Finally Scores! (Source)

Stocks mentioned: $NKE, $ONON, $ROST, $COST, $SKX

For the past 18 months, retail has been the market’s punching bag. Analysts and investors alike painted the sector as bloated, over-inventoried, and perpetually squeezed by inflation and discount-hungry consumers. But Nike’s (NKE) Q4 earnings results shattered that story. The company didn’t report a blowout quarter, it reported a resilient one, and that was enough to send shares soaring. When expectations are this low, “less bad” becomes the new bull case. This isn’t just about Nike. This is about the potential bottoming process for consumer discretionary stocks, and what comes next could catch the market by surprise.

The macro setup is shifting. Inflation has moderated. Inventories have been cleaned up and the consumer, while cautious, isn’t dead, just selective. Nike’s ability to beat on margins, guide steadily, and show strength in direct-to-consumer tells us that quality brands, with leaner operations, are entering a new phase of efficiency-led growth. The constraint was never just the consumer, it was bloated cost structures tied in with an out of control spiraling trade war with the countries who produced the products (China, Vietnam, etc). Now that the pain has been absorbed, a leaner retail sector is positioned to re-rate upward. In short: retail is becoming investable again...selectively.

Here are the stocks that are now best positioned to unlock value in this shifting environment:
- Nike (NKE): The obvious leader. Nike’s inventory discipline, digital direct-to-consumer (DTC) growth, and brand power are proving it can navigate a tough cycle while still generating operating leverage.
- On Holding (ONON): This emerging premium athletic brand is growing faster than the category, with a strong DTC mix and global brand momentum. Positioned as the next-gen alternative to Lululemon.
- Ross Stores (ROST): As consumers trade down, off-price retailers like Ross gain market share. The company has weathered inflation and now benefits from improving freight costs and a value-hunting shopper base.
- Costco (COST): While not flashy, Costco is a consumer fortress. With membership retention near all-time highs and pricing discipline unmatched in the sector, it’s a stealth winner in any environment.
- Skechers (SKX): Often overlooked, Skechers continues to grow internationally and offers exposure to the “value athletic” segment, which should thrive as mid-tier consumers stay selective.
This isn’t a full-sector recovery, retail remains bifurcated, but the worst-case scenario is now fully priced in for the winners. Nike’s report is a signal: fundamentals matter again, and the market is beginning to reward resilience over perfection. As cost curves normalize and digital channels scale, high-quality retail names are poised for multiple expansion. More than likely, the bottom is already in for the leaders and the re-rating has begun.

INSIDER TRADES FROM THE WEEK:

1. G3 Apparel (GIII) - David Goldfarb, Executive Vice President, bought ~$500,000 of G3 Apparel stock on June 17, 2025, but it was reported to the public on June 25, 2025. (Source)

2. Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) - Palantir Technologies, 10% owner of the company, acquired over $2,000,000 of Surf Air Mobility stock on June 18, 2025, but it was reported most recently to the public on June 23, 2025. (Source)

3. Vera Therapeutics (VERA) - Patrick Enright, Director, bought ~$5.3 million worth of Vera Therapeutics stock between June 23-24, 2025, but it was most recently reported to the public on June 25, 2025. (Source)

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