CEO Watchlist: Week In Review (12/21/25)

The "Santa Claus Rally" Countdown Begins: 5 Stocks Poised To Benefit From An End-Of-Year Rally! (Source)

Stocks mentioned: $NVDA, $TSLA, $MA, $NBIS, $TMDX

It's that time of year again! The "Santa Claus Rally" is finally here and historically that's a very good thing for your stocks! If you're newer to investing, you may have never heard of the "Santa Claus Rally" before, but put simply, it's a piece of seasonality data that occurs during the last week of December and the first couple of days in January. Historically, the stock market rallies during this time period, and that's why we tend to be bullish over this 2 week period. But you may be asking, "how accurate is this data, and what stocks are poised to benefit the most"? That's exactly what we're going to cover in today's article.

We pay attention to the "Santa Claus Rally" because the data behind it is both accurate and consistent. According to the data, the "Santa Claus Rally" produces positive results 4 out of every 5 years aka 80% of the time. Not only that, but the "Santa Claus Rally" has been known to push the S&P500 up as much as +8% in that one-week stretch. If you ask us, those odds and those returns for such a short time period aren't too shabby. Now the question is, will we get the "Santa Claus Rally" this year, or not?

We believe there is a high chance we get it this year, but there are a few negative variables hanging over this possibility. A couple things that concern us going into year-end is: elevated valuations, geopolitical uncertainty, and weak seasonality data going into next year. If the market can look past these things, and the technicals hold up, then we believe the next couple of months could see a significant rally before we get a pullback in early 2026. Normally, because of tax-loss harvesting, hedge funds and investors tend to sell off the losers from the year and pile money into the known winners of that year. When we look back at 2025, we expect the names that have been winning all year, will continue to win over the next couple of weeks, and the names that have been struggling all year, will continue to struggle into the end of the year.

With that being said, there are a handful of stocks, with varying levels of risk, that we think will benefit the most over the next couple of weeks:

Nvidia (NVDA) - Lower Risk
Mastercard (MA) - Lower Risk
Tesla (TSLA) - Medium Risk
Nebius (NBIS) - Higher Risk
TransMedics (TMDX) - Higher Risk

The "Santa Claus Rally" should not be viewed as a guarantee, but rather the "cherry on top" if you're already bullish on these markets going into the end of the year. It has a strong history of playing out favorably with stocks, but remember 80% is not 100%, so there is still a chance we could see a sell-off into the end of the year. Based on all the data we have, and comparing it against the technicals and fundamentals of the market, we believe there's a good chance of a rally into the end of the year, and that means Santa is coming to town! As always, do your own due dilligence and manage your risk accordingly.

Just as a note, next week we will not be sending out a newsletter due to the holidays, but we will be resuming the newsletter the first week of 2026. That means this is our final newsletter for 2025, and we just want to give a huge thank-you to all 29,050 of you who continue to support our articles and content we put out for you guys on a weekly basis. We started this newsletter earlier this year, so to grow such a huge following in such a short amount of time, we are beyond grateful for all of your support. With that being said, we want to wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from our CEO Watchlist family to yours!

The 2026 Blueprint: Breaking Down Famed Investor Dan Ives’ Top 10 Boldest Tech Predictions... (Source)

Stocks mentioned: $TSLA, $GOOG, $AAPL, $NBIS, $RBRK, $CRWD, $PANW, $ORCL, $IONQ, $RGTI, $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA, $PLTR

When it comes to tech investing, there's not many names more recognizable than Dan Ives. Dan has built a reputation as one of the most influential technology analysts on Wall Street by consistently leaning into inflection points before they become consensus. As the global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, his calls matter because they shape institutional positioning, media narratives, and ultimately capital flows. Also, it doesn't hurt that his performance has been phenomenal and consistently outperformed the S&P500. So when Dan talks about tech, we always pay attention. This past Friday, he put out his "Top 10 Tech Predictions for 2026". Needless to say, we read through them, analyzed them, and on many points, agree with a lot that he has to say. With that being said, let's dive into all 10 of his predictions and give you our thoughts on each:

“Tech stocks will be up over 20% in 2026 as the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th derivatives around the AI Revolution take shape across software, chips, and infrastructure.”
Our view: We agree with Dan and believe technology stocks will be a leader in 2026. We also believe that financials and industrials will lead the stock market higher in 2026. So if we had to pick 3 sectors for 2026, it would be (in this order) technology, financials, and industrials.
“Tesla will successfully launch Robotaxis in over 30 cities in 2026 and start to scale volume production of Cybercabs, starting the true autonomous era for Musk & Co., with a $600 base case and $800 bull case.”
Our view: When it comes to Tesla (TSLA), you can't value it on normal metrics. This is a company that is very sentiment-driven. We believe they will continue to grow their market share in 2026, but they do have stiff competition from Google's (GOOG) Waymo. We believe it will be a back-and-forth throughout 2026 between these 2 companies, so we expect volatility in the name to continue. If they're able to clear safety regulations and expand to more cities, $600-$800 per share is not unreasonable.
“Apple and Google will announce a formal AI partnership around Gemini, launching a subscription service and leading Apple to a $5 trillion market cap in 2026.”
Our view: A partnership makes sense strategically, but Apple (AAPL) reaching $5 trillion depends on monetization, not announcements. Apple still needs to prove it can turn AI into recurring revenue the way it did with services, otherwise expectations may run ahead of reality.
“The best AI infrastructure acquisition candidate is Nebius, with Microsoft, Alphabet, or Amazon as likely buyers in 2026.”
Our view: This is one of the more interesting calls. Hyperscalers need capacity, speed, and optionality, and buying rather than building can shorten timelines. The risk is that valuations rise too fast or that big tech chooses internal buildouts instead. We really like Nebius (NBIS) and think it can double in 2026 but we don't believe it's going to be acquired by one of the hyperscalers.
“Cybersecurity will be one of the best-performing tech subsectors, with M&A, led by CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks.”
Our view: This feels very solid. AI increases attack surfaces, not reduces them, and security budgets tend to be sticky even in slower macro environments. Consolidation is likely, and leaders with platform scale should continue to win share. If we had to throw another name in here, we really like Rubrik (RBRK) and it doesn't compete directly with Crowdstrike (CRWD) or Palo Alto (PANW), making it that much more attractive.
“Oracle successfully builds out its data center targets, converts its AI backlog, and hits $250 per share in 2026 despite negative sentiment today.”
Our view: We have to disagree with Dan here. The way Oracle's (ORCL) financial are set up, it looks like they are in for another rough year. With the amount of debt they've taken on, and continue to take on, their balance sheet continues to suffer. From a fundamental standpoint, Oracle seems pretty weak, but if they can execute the way Dan is predicting, then his targets are very possible. We just think there is better risk/reward in other tech names.
“The Trump Administration makes an equity investment in a quantum company like IonQ or Rigetti due to national security concerns versus China.”
Our view: Government involvement in strategic tech is a growing trend, but timing and structure matter. An investment would be a major signal, yet quantum remains early and speculative. Expect volatility rather than smooth compounding here. We think this one is a 50/50. We think it's more likely the Trump administration will get equity investments in more industrial names such as drone and space stocks.
“Microsoft hits its sweet spot in 2026 as enterprises accelerate AI strategies on Azure, making it the top-performing cloud software name.”
Our view: Microsoft (MSFT) remains the cleanest enterprise AI compounder. Azure plus distribution plus OpenAI integration gives it multiple levers. The main risk is margin pressure from capex, but long-term positioning still looks great. We agree with Dan and this is why we're not just bullish on Microsoft, but also Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) (the 3 dominant players in cloud).
“Jensen Huang and Nvidia remain dominant in AI chips, gain further access to China, and reach a $275 bull case as demand is underestimated.”
Our view: Nvidia’s (NVDA) dominance is real, but expectations are already extremely high. Any China relief would be upside, yet even without it the demand curve remains strong. We think Nvidia remains strong and breaks though the $200 price level, but $275 seems a little high. We think in a more bullish case it can reach $250/share.
“Palantir expands commercial AI success with AIP and becomes a leader in enterprise software on its way to a $1 trillion valuation over 2 to 3 years.”
Our view: Palantir (PLTR) has momentum and a strong narrative, but a trillion-dollar valuation requires sustained commercial adoption at scale. The opportunity is real, though expectations may be ahead of fundamentals in the near term.

The most actionable takeaway is not to chase every AI headline, but to align with the structural winners. First, infrastructure and neo-cloud platforms like MSFT and NBIS that monetize AI demand regardless of the application layer. Second, consumer and autonomy platforms like AAPL and TSLA that control data and distribution, giving them optionality as AI features mature. Third, security leaders like CRWD that benefit defensively as AI increases complexity and risk. If Ives’ framework plays out, the shift is inevitable, and the market is still underpricing how much value accrues to these layers. The next leg higher will not be driven by hype, but by earnings power that has yet to be fully modeled.

"Super Investor" Spotlight: Guy Spier (Source)

Stocks mentioned: $BRK.B, $AXP, $BAC, $MA, $RACE, $BRK.A, $MU, $MCO, $BABA, $DJCO, $GOOGL, $SRG, $AMR, $CNR

For new readers, a “Super Investor” is a fund manager who has demonstrated the ability to beat the market over long periods through process, temperament, and disciplined capital allocation. These investors are not reacting to headlines or chasing momentum. They focus on owning exceptional businesses and letting time and compounding do the work. Because they manage public equity portfolios, their quarterly 13F filings give us a rare, real world look into how conviction investors are positioning capital. One of the clearest examples of this mindset today is Guy Spier.

Guy Spier is the founder and CIO of Aquamarine Capital, a Zurich-based investment partnership inspired heavily by the philosophy of Warren Buffett. His approach centers on owning a small number of understandable, high quality businesses, avoiding leverage, and minimizing emotional mistakes. Like Buffett, he is comfortable looking very different from the market, and his concentrated portfolio reflects that conviction driven style. But what good is conviction if you can't beat the market. And like most "Super Investors", Guy Spier has been able to consistently beat the market. When we look at his performance over the past 3 years compared to the S&P500, he is outpacing the market by roughly 23%, which is massive in the hedge fund world. Here is a chart comparing the two, with the red line representing Spier's Aquamarine Fund, and the blue line representing the S&P500:

Here is a breakdown of Guy Spier’s current portfolio based on his most recent 13F filing:

Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK.B) – 22.3%
American Express (AXP) – 22%
Bank of America (BAC) – 12.5%
Mastercard (MA) – 11.8%
Ferrari (RACE) – 9.1%
Berkshire Hathaway Class A (BRK.A) – 7.1%
Micron Technology (MU) – 4.2%
Moody’s (MCO) – 4.1%
Alibaba (BABA) – 2.7%
Daily Journal (DJCO) – 1.7%
Alphabet (GOOGL) – 1.2%
Seritage Growth Properties (SRG) – 0.7%
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) – 0.4%
Core Natural Resources (CNR) – 0.3%

The lesson for retail investors is clear and timeless. Guy Spier is not trying to predict the next macro move or trade short-term volatility. He is building a portfolio designed to survive mistakes, benefit from human behavior, and compound quietly over decades. His heavy weighting toward financial infrastructure, trusted brands, and owner oriented management teams reflects a belief that simplicity beats complexity. That is why we continue to respect Guy Spier so deeply. His latest portfolio reinforces the power of patience, conviction, and aligning your investments with businesses you would be comfortable owning even if the market closed tomorrow. Now to note, this isn't a portfolio we would want to copy if our goal is lots of growth as it's a bit too safe for us. This is moreso a portfolio that we would mimic if we wanted more stability and less volatility while still beating the overall market. So although this isn't the ideal portfolio that we would want to copy, it is still a very solid consistent portfolio for those whose goal is stable, long-term investing.

INSIDER STOCK TRADES FROM THE WEEK:

1. Kenvue (KVUE) - Billionaire Jeff Smith, bought roughly $110,000,000 of KVUE for an average price of $17.40/share between Dec. 11-12, 2025, but it was most recently reported to the public on Dec. 15, 2025. (Source)

2. Kodiak Sciences (KOD) - Hedge Fund "Baker Bros Advisors", bought roughly $60,000,000 of KOD at $23.00/share on Dec. 18, 2025, but it was most recently reported to the public on Dec. 19, 2025. (Source)

3. Disney (DIS) - James Gorman, Director, bought over $2,000,000 worth of DIS at $111.88/share on Dec. 12, 2025, but it was most recently reported to the public on Dec. 15, 2025. (Source)

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